Achieving victories is no easy task for the international task force of the United States, Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands, which aims to destroy Houthi targets in Yemen.
The Iranian-backed Houthis have carried out more than 30 attacks on international and commercial ships in the Red Sea since mid-November and show no signs of abating.
“We stand ready to take further steps to ensure the stability and security of the Red Sea and international trade routes and to respond to these attacks,” US defense officials said at a briefing on January 23.
The attacks have affected the global shipping industry and raised concerns that a war between Israel and Hamas could destabilize the Middle East.
Can the United States achieve victory against a group that Saudi Arabia has fought against for almost a decade without success?
Saudi Arabia has remained silent on these operations in the Red Sea, while peace talks with the Houthis of Saudi Arabia are currently ongoing.
Why are the United States and Britain attacking Yemen?
Before these attacks, diplomatic efforts were made to improve the situation in the Red Sea, but they did not succeed.
US Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking says, “It is sad that the situation has reached this point.”
The Houthis, who control Yemen’s most populated areas, say their attacks are in solidarity with the Palestinians as Israel attacks Gaza.
William Wechsler of the Atlantic Council, a think tank, believes that the US and Britain had no choice but to respond to the show of force.
“There are eight main seaports in international trade, half of which are in the Middle East,” he says. In addition, the Middle East is also an important part of the world in terms of energy supply. The Houthis directly threatened one of these sea outposts (Bab al-Mandab strait) which is highly unusual.
“Anyone who understands the role of energy in improving our daily lives, anyone who cares about economic development, has to understand the importance of protecting these important checkpoints.”
How powerful are the Houthis?
Houthi fighters have proven in their ongoing war with Saudi Arabia that they are more than capable of facing off against a sovereign state’s army, transformed from a scrappy insurgency into a well-trained fighting force thanks to Iranian support. Who have modern war equipment and even helicopters.
“There are two parts to the Houthi resistance,” says William Wechsler of the Atlantic Council. One is intention and the other is ability. No one can think that they can break their (Houthis) courage. But one idea is that their abilities can be eliminated.
While the Houthis have long been able to fight a major adversary, competing with the US and international allies is a different matter altogether. Their combined strength, strategy and experience is far greater than that of the Saudis.
The question now before the analysts is how far the US would like to be involved in this war.
Steven A. Cook is the Annie Enrico Mattei Chair for Middle East and African Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “We have immense power but we need to use it carefully,” he told a media briefing. We are not talking about things like attacking Yemen, changing the regime, as we have done in the past.
“I will say that I spoke to a number of Arab officials recently who said, ‘Look, if you’re just going to tease the Houthis, these things are not going to stop.’ You have to take effective military action that makes it difficult, if not impossible, for the Houthis to harass and attack ships in the Gulf.
Are the US and its allies going to get stuck in a long-term regional war?
James Gordon Fogo is a retired US Navy admiral and now associated with the Center for Maritime Strategy. He is also a former commander of US naval forces in Europe and Africa. He says that it is quite possible that this whole matter will turn into a big operation against Iranian influence. And this is a question that the administration is not talking about publicly yet, but surely they must be thinking about it.
In this regard, he recalled the recent media briefing about the tanker wars in the Arabian Gulf from 1980 to 1988. After Iran attacked the shipping tankers, the US attacked the Iranian Navy. Admiral Fogo compared it to the attack on the USS Cole, which was blown up in Yemen in October 2000. As a result, 17 American sailors were killed.
Although al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for the attack, there was no military response against the group. What happened after a year? 9/11 (Attacks on America)’.
Admiral Fogo was probably trying to reflect his sentiments that military action was necessary in this regard.
Steven A. Cook seems to agree. “Freedom of navigation is a fundamental interest of the United States, and allowing such a group to establish its power in this area could be very dangerous,” he said.
How is Iran involved in the operation of the Houthis in the Red Sea?
Iran provides arms and financial support to the Houthis, but Tehran does not directly control them.
Ray Takia is a Senior Fellow at the Council for Middle Eastern Studies. According to him, the Houthis themselves have adopted anti-American and anti-Israeli policies. They were not pushed in this direction by the Iranians. So that means they are not created by Iran. It is a like-minded association. It really came about as an opportunistic attempt to harm the Saudis.
The Houthis play an influential role for Iran that enables Iran to exert pressure on Israel through the United States.
Takia believes that Iran hopes that the international community and the United States will be forced to impose some sort of settlement on Israel, given the fear that the conflict will escalate.
The basic assumption here is that the US and the international community can impose sanctions on Israel. Israel is a sovereign country dealing with a very complicated situation.
Is this an ‘unwinnable war’?
According to experts, US President Joe Biden’s emerging strategy for Yemen seems to be aimed at weakening the Houthi fighters. But the policy does not address defeating the group or directly confronting the Houthis’ main patron, Iran.
US strategy consists of limited military operations and sanctions. This appears to be aimed at punishing the Houthis and preventing a major conflict in the Middle East.
Brian Carter of the American Enterprise Institute says he doesn’t think the main goal of the mission is to destroy the Houthis or restore the Yemeni government to power.
They believe that this strategy is aimed at reducing the Houthis’ naval and military capabilities to challenge global shipping in the Red Sea.
“Degrading the military system is not an invincible task. It is a military objective that can be achieved.
US Special Envoy for Yemen Tim Lenderking also emphasized that the war is not a large-scale conflict. “This is only to eliminate the Houthis’ ability to attack ships.”
The Pentagon says more than 25 Houthi missile launch and deployment facilities and more than 20 missiles have been destroyed in Yemen since US operations began on January 11.
They say drones, coastal radars and Houthi aerial surveillance capabilities have also been targeted, as well as weapons caches.
Does this conflict strengthen the Houthis?
Tim Lenderking says the Houthis may want to get involved in this war. He told the BBC that he might want to convince the (Yemeni) people that he is standing not only with the Palestinian people but also against the West.
Security correspondent Frank Gardner says the Houthis are now popular in the Arab world, as they say they are supporting Hamas, an Iranian-backed resistance movement against Israel.
Under Operation Poseidon Archer, US-led strikes now target new targets. Prior to this, there were pre-emptive attacks on Houthi launching sites.
The Pentagon says the missiles were destroyed while they were being prepared for launch. Western intelligence recently estimated that at least 30 percent of the Houthis’ missile stockpile has been destroyed or has lost its capability.
Nevertheless, Houthi attacks on ships bound for Israel, the US or the UK are likely to continue.
Gardner says the attacks have earned him a lot of local support in Yemen, where many Yemenis resent his brutal rule.
Hisham al-Omaysi is attached to the European Institute for Peace as a senior adviser on Yemen. He wrote on X (Twitter) that many people may not realize that apart from supporting Gaza, the Houthis have many goals of their own.
The recent conflict also gives them an opportunity to justify their decades-old claim of fighting the US.
He says that the Houthis are not only managing to gain the support of the people, but they have successfully launched a massive recruitment campaign for ‘conquest and jihad on the Holy Land’.
Hisham Al-Omaisi says that at a time when anti-American and anti-British sentiments are at their peak at the local level, it is not wise to look at this issue purely from a military perspective and ignore its socio-political implications altogether.
