The war in Gaza has entered its fifth month, with widespread destruction of the Gaza Strip’s infrastructure and the highest civilian death toll in the history of conflict in the 21st century. Is.
Israel launched the war on October 7 in response to the Hamas operation and is determined to continue it.
In a statement repeated many times since the start of the war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on February 7, “We are on our way to eliminate Hamas, release the hostages and fulfill the promise that Israel There will be no further threat from Gaza.
But can Israel really eliminate Hamas or has it set itself a target that is difficult to achieve?
The war resulted in the deaths of over 1,200 Israelis and over 28,000 Palestinians. Calls for a ceasefire have increased around the world, as the conflict continues to escalate in light of fears of a wider war in the Middle East.
At the same time, tensions are rising because of the Israeli military campaign, and according to US Secretary of State Anthony Blanken, there is a need to reach a permanent solution “that includes a path to a Palestinian state.”
However, Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu remained openly hostile to the United States.
Israel faces charges of genocide and violations of international law at the International Court of Justice. He considers these allegations to be ‘very ridiculous’. Israel has so far been unable to suppress the Hamas movement in Gaza after months of conflict, despite having far superior military capabilities to Hamas.
According to an estimate of 30,000 fighters in Hamas’ military wing, the Israeli army claims it has killed a third of Hamas fighters and wounded 16,000, a blow to Hamas’ military capabilities. can
However, US agencies estimate that the number of casualties is less than 11,700, and many of them may return to the battlefield. However, this number was not confirmed by Hamas.
According to Mary Essen, a retired Israeli colonel who served as a military adviser to former Likud prime ministers, the Israeli army ‘managed to kill a number of field commanders, and found caches of weapons. But it does not mean that we have eliminated all terrorists.
He added that the army was “systematically blowing up the network of terrorist tunnels”.
But according to military analysts, ‘this is not the most important move in this context.’
Jeremy Binney, Middle East editor of Jane’s Defense Weekly, cast doubt on the extent of the damage done to Hamas, adding that the movement “could easily recruit new fighters” and that “the tunnel network is much larger than we expected.” .’
Is support for Hamas increasing?
According to an opinion poll conducted in the last quarter of last year, which included Palestinians in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, support for Hamas increased despite the heavy losses suffered by Palestinians after the October events. has been
The survey found that support for Hamas rose from 22 percent to 43 percent at the end of the year. Although it represents less than half of the Palestinians, it is more representative than the support of the Fatah movement, which controls the West Bank. Support for Hamas has also increased in this region.
In addition, 72 percent of participants agreed to support Hamas in the decision to attack on October 7. 63 percent of people polled said armed action was the best way to end the Israeli occupation. The majority of the participants in this survey were from the West Bank.
According to the survey’s administrator, support for Hamas usually increases during or immediately after a war.
But for anti-Israel academic Dr. Ibrahim Freihat, Palestinians ‘live without hope and without a future, and Hamas has given them an alternative to conflict and revolution, which offers them a different perspective.’
He further said that in this way Hamas has wide support not only in Palestine but also in the Arab and Islamic world.
But there are also people who do not support Hamas.
Earlier this year, hundreds of Palestinian activists participated in an online event criticizing Hamas’ rule of the Gaza Strip.
Hamas’ rule began when the movement won the 2007 elections and took full control of the strip, where people live in dire conditions amid Israeli siege and unemployment.
A new breed of warriors?
The armed movement launched by Hamas against Israel is accordingly aimed at ending the Israeli occupation and establishing a Palestinian state. Many in the West consider Hamas a terrorist organization, but part of the Arab world sees it as a resistance movement.
But unlike other Islamic movements that have been labeled as terrorists, Ibrahim Farhayat explains that ‘Hamas’ (political) agenda is limited to the Palestinian agenda. It has no global narrative to promote religion and Islam in the world or in other countries.
He added that it is a national liberation movement and its political agenda is the end of Israeli occupation and the establishment of a Palestinian state.
As for Hugh Lovatt of the European Council on Foreign Relations, he believes that since the 2007 takeover by Hamas, Gaza has been under Israeli siege ‘in this context, including the West Bank, Israel’s occupation (of Gaza) has been maintained because Israel was trying to create what the EU described as a state reality in light of the absence of equality of opportunity and potential conflict.’
While Israel insists the blockade is necessary to fend off threats from Hamas, many Palestinians believe the “occupation fuels feelings of anger,” and observers call it a “reinstatement of the trend toward resistance.” Understand the reason.
It’s a sentiment that Iman Farajullah, a psychologist who grew up in Gaza, agrees with.
“As a psychologist, I believe that many of these children want to avenge the death of their parents,” says Iman. I am sure you will realize this because you know their murdered brothers. With what is happening in Gaza these days, I am not sure that Israel is not contributing to the increase in the number of fighters who support Hamas.
Why is it difficult for Israel to eliminate Hamas?
Israel makes no secret of its intention to eliminate Hamas. But past experiences show that this will be difficult to do.
Hugh Lovatt says Hamas ‘is not just a military organization, nor is it just a political movement. It is an ideology and it is difficult to eliminate this ideology, especially with the force of Israeli weapons.
This opinion echoes the assessment of former Israeli soldier Benzie Sanders, who participated in the 2014 military operation on the Gaza Strip. About this operation, he said that it has “increased the power of Hamas”. His views contrasted with then-Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon, who said the damage to Hamas was “deep and severe.”
Benzie Sanders realized that many civilians had been killed in the area where he was stationed, he says. Has Hamas really suffered? Did (the war) weaken it? Stopped Hamas from doing what it did?’
“And from what I found in the years since, the answer was no, it didn’t,” the former Israeli soldier added. Not only this, but Hamas became stronger.
Is there an alternative solution?
Majority of the countries of the world believe that the peace agreement is the only way forward. It’s an idea supported by Hugh Lovatt, who says, “If one wants to marginalize and weaken Hamas, the only way to do that is to reach a major political solution.”
However, the current Israeli government appears determined to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state and rejects any path that leads to the elimination of Hamas.
“As I look into the future, I think Israel will continue to destroy Hamas’s capabilities,” says Mary Essen, adding that “even if we are able to destroy large numbers of Hamas fighters, they will still Will continue to raise their heads.’
Netanyahu, who has led the longest-serving right-wing government in Israel’s history, wants to maintain security control for the foreseeable future, which he has expressed by saying that “Gaza will be demilitarized and Israeli-occupied.” should be under the full protective control of the state.’
This position is backed by a majority of ministers and representatives in Netanyahu’s governing coalition, tantamount to an outright long-term occupation. And some of them even openly demand the establishment of settlements in Gaza.
But this vision for the postwar era lacks American support.
After pressure from President Joe Biden’s administration to reveal a postwar plan, Defense Secretary Yves Gallant unveiled a plan that responds to the U.S. desire to avoid civilian settlements in Gaza.
But skeptics of the Gallant plan ask who could take over the reins of civil administration for the Palestinians after Hamas, while maintaining freedom of movement and military operations for Israel.
But what will be the governance situation in Gaza after the war? The question remains until a permanent peace agreement is reached. But until an alternative to the current situation comes out, the real danger is whether there will be more congestion in the future.